Comments on The Science of Sport: Showdown in Berlin: Marathon WR to fall?

Thanks for the analysis. Exciting stuff! And Fran...

2009-09-19T17:31:57.342+02:00

Thanks for the analysis. Exciting stuff!

And Frans, thanks for the tips on where to watch!

www.universalsports.com will certainly broadcast l...

2009-09-19T00:35:17.572+02:00

www.universalsports.com will certainly broadcast live from the US. But most likely also stream website www.channelsurfing.com, which relays (most likely) universalsports.

Official website:www.scc-events.com

This is great! I so look forward to this race. Is ...

2009-09-18T21:39:56.278+02:00

This is great! I so look forward to this race. Is there anywhere online to watch it? Please help!

I would be interested in seeing a pacing analysis ...

2009-09-18T19:00:31.463+02:00

I would be interested in seeing a pacing analysis that takes into account the athlete's 'normalized graded pace' instead of simply comparing mile (or 5k) splits. Normalized Graded Pace (NGP) might better reflect the physiological cost of running, which may be more useful when considering one’s pacing strategy. It would be interesting to see a chart that shows actual mile splits and ‘normalized’ mile splits, for both Geb and Kibet.

Although the Berlin Marathon might not contain the surges of other major marathons (since it is designed to be more of a time trial race), NGP (versus actual pace) would still provide a more accurate measure of one's overall pacing strategy. And although Berlin is fairly flat, the elevation profile still suggests that one mile might be slightly 'harder', or ‘easier’, than another mile.

As an example, when looking at the gps data of a few of my age-group athletes that competed at the Boston Marathon over the past 3 years, I found that comparing NGP/mile provided more value than comparing their mile splits. Of course, the net decline and hills of Boston make this obvious.

In the world of elite marathoning, tactics come into play, and rapid surges in the late stages of the race would make NGP data particularly interesting.

Therefore, my wish is:
It would be wonderful to obtain gps data on Geb and Kibet, and then, after estimating their running FTP, analyze this gps data using software such as Training Peaks WKO+.

Unlike a power meter, NGP analysis can't (at this point in time) reflect footing, or wind--but I still feel it has more merit than simply comparing 5k splits.

PS I just finished reading your book "The Runner's Body" and highly recommend this book to all passionate endurance athletes and coaches.

My guess: WR: 02:03:58 Unbelievables 1/42 sec/km...

2009-09-18T17:30:35.867+02:00

My guess:

WR: 02:03:58

Unbelievables 1/42 sec/km faster than last year.

Hi Giovanni Problem is, my confidence intervals w...

2009-09-18T16:11:56.742+02:00

Hi Giovanni

Problem is, my confidence intervals would be as arbitrary as my actual guesses....

So while I hear you, just bear in mind it's all speculation, just a bit of fun at the end of a week that has seen some pretty serious discussion! How confident am I in my prediction? 50%? 80%? Depends when you ask.

I think it would be fun to have predictions, so go ahead and shoot for them. But don't hold your breath on working out variance and confidence!

Cheers
Ross

Rather than shooting one guess, I encourage (or ch...

2009-09-18T16:06:53.113+02:00

Rather than shooting one guess, I encourage (or challenge you) to give a confidence interval, i.e. a range and your estimated probability. For example you may say: "his time will be between 2:03:40 and 2:05:00 with a 50% percent confidence". Or you may say: "his time will be between 2:03:00 and 2:06:00 with a 90% percent confidence". We could even have a prediction market in your blog, with people voting different predictions.

Wonderful discussion!! Thanks for taking us deepe...

2009-09-18T13:20:08.698+02:00

Wonderful discussion!!

Thanks for taking us deeper into the workings of the event. Between you, Arnaud and Caster, people may just start to pay attention to athletics again.