Comments on The Science of Sport: Berlin Marathon: Revised prediction - no world re...

Hi there, I actually raced in this marathon (my f...

2010-08-08T12:41:45.867+02:00

Hi there,

I actually raced in this marathon (my first) and even thought the temperatures kept on rising a lot after 11am, which obviously didn't affect Gebresselasie, it was pretty warm since maybe 10:30. After my marathon I realized just how much the temperature affects your output in this kind of event (I never felt really affected in a 10k). Considering that Gebresselasie himself said after the race that the heat was definitvely a factor, I can clearly see that this was exactly the reason why he didn't go faster, at least a sub 2:05.

I lost my struggle for a sub 4 at the moment when I could not longer evade stopping for water (at 37km), which became a literal stopping since hundreds of runners didn't drink while running anymore but simply stood at the water tables, blocking everything. You had to stop in order to get some water, and well, at this point my body didn't want to go anymore and feeling the pain, I had to subsequently adapt my running style. Well, 2010 is on the line. Thanx for the fantastic insights your blog provides.

30K Road WR for Kosgei and (forever collecting WR'...

2009-09-20T10:34:14.021+02:00

30K Road WR for Kosgei and (forever collecting WR's) Gebrselassie in 1:27.49.

Start 14gr C. Not much wind. Start at WR pace for ...

2009-09-20T09:56:12.927+02:00

Start 14gr C. Not much wind.
Start at WR pace for Haile and Kibet together in 10K 29:15 and 15K 43:56. Projected temp end race: 17gr C.

HI Frans, Anonymous Frans, thanks for that. We w...

2009-09-20T08:12:26.795+02:00

HI Frans, Anonymous

Frans, thanks for that. We will see how it goes. I still believe that if temperatures rise to anything around 20 degrees, it's too hot for a record, especially if the humidity is a little on the high side as well.

Not disastrous, but to run 2:03:58, you don't need good weather, you need perfect weather. Then of course, as you point out, you need perfect form, perfect pacing, it's too good now to be broken in a 90% effort, it has to be better.

So we'll see on the course, I hope the temperatures stay in the mid teens until the runners are done, but I suspect it will be just too warm.

Then to anonymous, you're right about the forums, but if you want to get a one-page view of what is going on in the world of track and field, Letsrun is the best single site to do it. Yes, you could go on Google, but I'll give you an example. I didn't even realise the great North Run was happening today, until I logged onto Letsrun and found the headlines, together with a link to an article. So credit to the source, of course, but the collection of that news is done by Letsrun.

I could spend 10 minutes on google, trying to think of all the running related news I might find, or I could go to one site, see it all, and then read further.

Also, their own analysis of races is excellent - their Berlin coverage was better than anyone's, race previews, race reports and so on. So I think it's a terrific resource - first page I visit in the morning when I wake up.

The forums, I agree with you, a lot of insults. But also some very sharp folks there, who do understand the sport. Good with the bad, I suppose!

Thanks!
ROss

First line should read: "Sorry to take you up on ...

2009-09-20T02:18:32.262+02:00

First line should read:

"Sorry to take you up on this,...

up on this , but since you say it quite often...Le...

2009-09-20T02:17:04.538+02:00

up on this , but since you say it quite often...Letsrun is NOT a reputable or excellent news source. I know they love you over there, but it is nothing other than a blog site that links to articles written by others and a forum for either trolls or people who don't respect each other's opinion.
They may of course be right in this case and others, but they are not a 'credible news source'...you could get as much or more if you bothered to google.

That said, I would have thought a bureau of meteorology would be where one gets this info coupled to some good local knowledge as given by the poster above.

cheers

The marathon is run from 9 to short after 11 in th...

2009-09-19T22:38:24.822+02:00

The marathon is run from 9 to short after 11 in the morning. Meteorologically spoken it's already 3 weeks Autumn.

The temperatures will be not perfect, but also not desastrous I think. The onset of temperature in our area (Holland and Germany close by) is primarely in the late afternoon. Theoretically mostly between 16 and 17h.

So Berlin 2009 basically will ressemble Dubai Jan 2008 where Geb didn't have his pace right and faded (2:05.29)after scaring the 30K Road WR by a second. Perhaps the other weather components won't be ideal either.

But one thing is more important:
Are Gebrselassie en Kibet themselves in absolute top form?

Ideal weather is very useful, but this fact by itself isn't a guarantee for a WR by a long shot.

Gebr (or/and Kibet) might even attempt the 30K WR and deliberately dismissing his/their attempt breaking the Marathon WR.